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Lesson 4.2 Extra bets and myths
Betting Systems Do Not Change the Edge
After this lesson, you will know why the size of your bet never changes the house edge or the right move. You will also see what the Martingale system really changes and why a long losing streak ends at the table limit.
Bet size does not change the edge
The house edge is the share of each bet the casino keeps on average. With basic strategy and standard rules, it is about 0.62% of every bet.
| When you raise your bet | What happens |
|---|---|
| The amount at risk | Grows with your bet |
| The house edge | Stays 0.62% |
| The cards that are dealt | Stay the same |
| The right move on the chart | Stays the same |
A bigger bet is a bigger amount at the same edge. Here is a hand you play the same way at every bet size.
Hard 16 means a total of 16 with no ace counted as 11. The chart row shows the move against each dealer up card.
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
The chart says: stand against 2–6, hit against 7–A. That is true for a bet of 1 unit and for a bet of 20 units.
How Martingale works
Martingale is a betting system: you double your bet after every loss. After a win, you go back to your first bet.
| Hand | Bet | Result | Total so far |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 unit | Lose | −1 unit |
| 2 | 2 units | Lose | −3 units |
| 3 | 4 units | Lose | −7 units |
| 4 | 8 units | Win | +1 unit |
When the hand pays 1:1, one win pays back all the losses plus your first bet. Most runs end this way, so the system looks safe at first.
What the system really changes
Martingale changes the shape of the swings, not the edge. You get many small wins and a rare, very large loss.
Every online table has a table limit – the largest bet allowed. Say your first bet is 1 unit and the limit is 10 units.
| Losses in a row | Next bet | Total lost |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 units | 1 unit |
| 2 | 4 units | 3 units |
| 3 | 8 units | 7 units |
| 4 | 16 units – over the limit | 15 units |
- Every bet in the run still carries a house edge of 0.62%.
- Bigger bets mean more money bet in total, so your average loss grows.
- Long losing streaks are rare, but over many hands they do happen.
Pick one bet size you are fine with losing and keep it. Spend your attention on the right move for each hand.
You can watch these swings with play money in the simulator. More systems are covered in betting systems and house edge.
If betting stops being fun, read responsible gambling.
Practise: 25 hands
Only hands from this lesson. Your first answer counts.
The lesson on one card
- Every blackjack bet carries the same house edge: 0.62% with basic strategy.
- Your bet size never changes the right move on the chart.
- Martingale doubles the bet after each loss and goes back to the first bet after a win.
- It gives many small wins and a rare, very large loss.
- A long losing streak ends at the table limit, and the losses stay.
Check yourself
1. You bet 5 units on one hand and 20 units on the next. What is the house edge on each hand with basic strategy?
0.62% on both hands
Right. The house edge is a share of each bet. It stays the same whatever the bet size.
Lower on the 20-unit hand
Not quite. A bigger bet does not change the cards or the rules. The edge stays 0.62%.
Higher on the 20-unit hand
Not quite. The share stays the same. Only the amount at that share gets bigger.
2. What does the Martingale system really change?
It removes the house edge
Not quite. Every bet in the run still has a house edge of 0.62%. No betting pattern removes it.
The shape of the swings: many small wins and rare large losses
Right. Most runs end with a small win of your first bet. A long losing streak brings one very large loss.
It makes losing streaks shorter
Not quite. Your bet size has no effect on which cards come out. Streaks happen exactly as often as before.
3. You are on the third loss in a Martingale run. You bet 8 units and hold a 10 and a 6 against a dealer 10. What is the right move?
Stand, because the bet is big
Not quite. Bet size does not change the chart. Hard 16 against a dealer 10 is a hit.
Hit, the same as with any bet
Right. The chart for hard 16 says hit against 7–A. That stays true at every bet size.
Double to get the losses back faster
Not quite. The chart never doubles hard 16. Doubling here puts more money on a weak hand.