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Lesson 4.4 Extra bets and myths
Hot Tables and Other Blackjack Myths: What the Chart Says
In this lesson you learn to spot four common blackjack myths: hot tables and the dealer being due, the bad player at your table, never hitting 12 against a 2, and always assuming a ten in the hole. For each one, you will see what the strategy chart and the numbers actually say.
Hot tables and “the dealer is due”
A myth says a table runs hot or cold, or that the dealer is “due” to bust after a streak.
Most digital online games dealt by software reshuffle the cards before every round. Then each hand starts from a full shoe – the box the cards are dealt from.
- Past hands do not change the next hand.
- The dealer's chance to bust depends only on the up card – the dealer's face-up card – and the table rules.
Dealer up card along the bottom; how often the dealer goes over 21 above each bar (6 decks, dealer hits soft 17, before any check for blackjack).
With a 6 up, the dealer busts 43.9% of the time. With a 10 up, the dealer busts 21.2% of the time, counted before the dealer checks for blackjack.
A streak does not change these numbers. You can check any up card in the dealer bust calculator.
When you hear “the dealer is due”, look at the up card and play the chart.
“A bad player at the table hurts you”
Another player hits when the chart says stand. Then you lose your hand, and you blame that player.
Their move changes which card comes next. The next card can be any card in the shoe, for example one of these:
Nobody knows that card in advance, so the move can help you just as easily as it can hurt you.
- Other players do not change your house edge – the share of each bet the casino keeps on average.
- You remember the hands where their move hurt you. You forget the hands where it helped you.
- In many online games you play alone at the table.
“Never hit 12 against a 2”
Many players stand on 12 against a dealer 2 because they fear a bust. The chart says hit.
Only a 10, J, Q or K busts your 12. Every other card makes your hand better.
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H | H | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
Hard 12 – a 12 with no ace counted as 11 – is a hit against 2–3, a stand against 4–6 and a hit against 7–A. You can test any hand in the hit or stand calculator.
“Always assume a ten in the hole”
The hole card is the dealer's face-down card. A myth says you should always assume it is a ten.
When the dealer shows an ace, the hole card is a ten-value card only about 30.9% of the time. Most of the time it is not a ten.
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
The strategy chart already counts every possible hole card. Hard 16 is a stand against 2–6 and a hit against 7–A.
These moves come from all the cards, not from one guessed card. This is also why insurance is a bad bet.
Do not guess the hole card. Play the row for your hand and the dealer's up card, then practice it in the trainer below.
Practise: 25 hands
Only hands from this lesson. Your first answer counts.
The lesson on one card
- Most digital online games reshuffle every round, so no table is hot and no dealer is due.
- Other players' moves do not change your house edge.
- Hit hard 12 against a dealer 2 or 3. Stand against 4–6.
- The hole card is not always a ten. The chart already counts every card.
- Basic strategy lowers the house edge. It does not remove it.
Check yourself
1. In a digital online game that reshuffles every round, the dealer has busted five hands in a row. What does this mean for the next hand?
Nothing – the cards are reshuffled, so the next hand starts fresh.
Right. This game reshuffles before every round. Past hands do not change the next one.
The dealer is now less likely to bust, so you should hit more.
Not quite. A streak does not change the bust numbers. The chance depends only on the up card and the rules.
The table is hot, so you should raise your bet.
Not quite. There are no hot tables when every hand starts from a full shoe. Your bet size does not change the house edge.
2. The dealer shows an ace, before checking for blackjack (6 decks, no other cards known). How often is the hole card a ten-value card?
Always – that is why you should assume a ten.
Not quite. The hole card can be any card. Assuming a ten every time leads to wrong moves.
About 30.9% of the time.
Right. That is the share of ten-value cards in the shoe. Most of the time the hole card is not a ten.
About half of the time.
Not quite. The real share is 30.9%. That is well below half.
3. You hold a 10 and a 2, and the dealer shows a 3. The player next to you says: “Never hit a 12.” What does the chart say?
Stand, because the dealer is likely to bust with a 3.
Not quite. The chart says stand on hard 12 only against 4–6. Against a 3, the chart says hit.
Hit.
Right. The hard 12 row is a hit against 2–3. Only a 10, J, Q or K busts your hand.
Do what the other player does, so you do not change the cards.
Not quite. Other players' choices do not change your house edge. Play your own hand by the chart.