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Dealer bust odds by up card
How the dealer's hand finishes for each up card, before the dealer checks for blackjack.
Inputs
| Up card | Busts | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Blackjack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.7% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 37.7% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 39.8% | 12.2% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 42.0% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 43.9% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| 7 | 26.2% | 36.9% | 13.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 8 | 24.4% | 12.9% | 36.0% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 0.0% |
| 9 | 22.9% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 35.2% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 10 | 21.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 34.0% | 3.5% | 7.7% |
| A | 13.9% | 5.7% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 6.6% | 30.9% |
Off the top of a full shoe, with no player cards removed. In games where the dealer checks for blackjack, the dealer showing a 10 or an ace busts more often once you know there is no blackjack.
Why a 5 or 6 is the dealer's weakest card
The dealer must keep drawing until reaching 17. Starting from a 5 or 6, the dealer usually needs two or more cards, and a ten-value card – the most common card in the deck – often pushes the total past 21. That is why the chart stands on hard 12–16 against a dealer 4, 5 or 6 and doubles more often there.
Why a 7 is so different from a 6
With a 7 showing, one ten-value card gives the dealer 17 and the hand is over. The bust rate drops sharply from 6 to 7, and the chart switches from standing to hitting on stiff hands.
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