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Blackjack win rate calculator: win, push and lose per round
How often a round ends in a win, a push or a loss when every hand is played by the basic strategy chart, measured over a very large number of simulated rounds.
Inputs
| How a round ends | Share of rounds |
|---|---|
| Lose 2 bets or more (doubles, splits) | 4.64% |
| Lose 1 bet | 43.39% |
| Push | 8.70% |
| Win 1 bet | 32.32% |
| Blackjack paid | 4.53% |
| Win 2 bets or more (doubles, splits) | 6.41% |
In 100 rounds that is about 43.3 wins, 8.7 pushes and 48.0 losses on average, and an average result of −6.17 at this bet.
Simulated: 1,000,000,000 rounds for this table, each played by the basic strategy chart for its rules; ± is one standard error. The average result is exact, from our engine; the simulation gives −0.617% ± 0.004%.
What counts as a win, a push and a loss
Each figure is about a whole round: everything you bet on it, including a double or the second hand of a split, against everything you get back. You win the round if you end it ahead, push if you get exactly your bet back, and lose if you end behind. A surrender counts as a loss, and a blackjack against a dealer blackjack is a push.
Why you lose more rounds than you win
With 6 decks and the dealer hitting soft 17, about 43.3% of rounds are won and 48.0% lost: 4.8 more losses than wins in every 100 rounds. The house edge is still only 0.62%, because the wins are bigger on average: a blackjack pays 3 to 2 (4.5% of rounds), and doubled or split hands win 2 bets or more in 6.4% of rounds against 4.6% where they lose 2 or more. Playing by the chart makes the most of those rounds; you still lose more rounds than you win.
Odds of being dealt a blackjack
A blackjack is an ace and any ten-value card as your first two cards. From a full shoe the chance is exact:
| Decks | Chance | Exact | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4.827% | 32/663 | 21 |
| 2 | 4.780% | 64/1339 | 21 |
| 6 | 4.749% | 192/4043 | 21 |
| 8 | 4.745% | 256/5395 | 21 |
The dealer gets one just as often. When the dealer shows an ace, the chance that the hidden card makes a blackjack is far higher – the insurance calculator works it out for your cards.
How the rules change the odds
| Table | Win | Push | Lose | House edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 decks, dealer hits soft 17 | 43.3% | 8.7% | 48.0% | 0.62% |
| 6 decks, dealer stands on soft 17 | 43.4% | 8.8% | 47.9% | 0.40% |
| 8 decks, dealer hits soft 17 | 43.2% | 8.7% | 48.0% | 0.65% |
| 8 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, late surrender | 42.4% | 8.5% | 49.1% | 0.36% |
| European: no hole card, 6 decks, dealer stands on soft 17 | 43.3% | 8.8% | 47.9% | 0.52% |
| 2 decks, dealer hits soft 17 | 43.4% | 8.6% | 48.0% | 0.39% |
| 1 deck, dealer hits soft 17, no double after split | 43.5% | 8.5% | 48.0% | 0.18% |
Most rules move these shares by a few tenths of a percentage point. Late surrender is the exception: it turns some full losses into half losses, so more rounds count as lost while the house edge goes down. A 6:5 payout does not change the shares at all – it pays less on the same blackjacks, which is why it raises the house edge without changing how often you win. What each rule costs: house edge calculator.
Runs of losses are normal
With these shares, losing 5 rounds in a row happens about once in every 39 runs of 5 rounds – often enough to see it in almost any session. In online games run by a random number generator the cards are usually shuffled for every round, so a run of losses says nothing about the next round, and neither does a run of wins. If chasing losses sounds familiar, see responsible gambling.
For one exact hand – your cards against the dealer's up card – the blackjack calculator gives the same win, push and lose shares move by move.
More on the odds behind the game: blackjack odds.
How it is worked out
Our own simulator, written independently of the engine, plays 1,000,000,000 rounds for each table from a freshly shuffled shoe, with every hand played by the basic strategy chart our engine builds for those rules. It counts how each round ends. Its average result agrees with the exact engine within its margin of error for every table, and its share of player blackjacks agrees with the exact formula. The ± after each share is one standard error.
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