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No bust blackjack strategy: what never busting really costs
The no bust blackjack strategy never takes a card that could bust the hand. It sounds safe, but it costs more than basic strategy. Here is the exact price of never busting and of playing like the dealer.
Never busting raises the house edge from 0.62% (basic strategy) to 3.86%, or 5.96% without doubles and splits. Playing like the dealer: 5.89%. (6 decks, dealer hits soft 17, 3:2.)
- What the no bust strategy is
- What each fixed strategy costs
- Where never busting loses: against 7 to ace
- Why basic strategy busts on purpose
- Mimic the dealer: where the house edge comes from
- Is blackjack skill or luck?
- Questions
01What the no bust strategy is
The no bust strategy has one rule: never take a card when that card could take you over 21. You stand on every hard 12 or more and wait for the dealer to bust.
Here a no bust player stands on 14 against a 10. The chart hits.
- Never bust, plain: hit hard 11 or less, stand on hard 12 or more. Soft hands (an ace counted as 11) cannot bust on one card, so they are hit up to soft 17. No doubles, no splits.
- Never bust with the chart's doubles and splits: play the strategy chart, but replace every hit on a hard 12 to 16 with a stand.
- Mimic the dealer: play your hand by the dealer's rule – hit 16 or less and soft 17, stand on hard 17 or more and soft 18 or more. No doubles, no splits.
02What each fixed strategy costs
| Strategy | How it plays | House edge | Added vs basic | Hands that bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basic strategy | The strategy chart for these rules, every hand. | 0.62% | – | 15.6% |
| Chart without doubles or splits | The chart's hits and stands, but never a double or a split. | 2.56% | +1.95 | 16.9% |
| Never bust, with doubles and splits | The chart, but stand on every hard 12 to 16. | 3.86% | +3.24 | 0.0% |
| Never bust, plain | Hit hard 11 or less and soft 17 or less, stand on everything else. No doubles, no splits. | 5.96% | +5.34 | 0.0% |
| Mimic the dealer | Hit 16 or less and soft 17, like the dealer. No doubles, no splits. | 5.89% | +5.28 | 27.2% |
6 decks, dealer hits soft 17, double after split, dealer checks for blackjack, blackjack pays 3:2, no insurance. “Added vs basic” is in percentage points of the house edge. Hands that bust: share of your hands that finish over 21.
The no bust strategy does what it promises: none of your hands bust. It still raises the house edge from 0.62% to 3.86% with the chart's doubles and splits, and to 5.96% without them – about as much as playing like the dealer (5.89%).
At a $10 bet, that is an average loss of $38.57 per 100 hands instead of $6.17.
Doubles and splits are worth 1.95 percentage points on their own. Whatever else you change, keep them.
03Where never busting loses: against 7 to ace
Against a dealer 4, 5 or 6 the chart already stands on every stiff hand (hard 12 to 16), so never busting costs nothing there. Against a 7 or higher it costs a lot.
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | S | S | S | S | H | H | H | H | H |
| Dealer shows | Basic strategy | Never bust | Mimic the dealer | Cost of never bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | +9.2% | +8.9% | +1.3% | +0.4 |
| 3 | +12.6% | +12.5% | +2.7% | +0.1 |
| 4 | +16.3% | +16.3% | +4.1% | 0 |
| 5 | +20.3% | +20.3% | +5.6% | 0 |
| 6 | +23.9% | +23.9% | +6.9% | 0 |
| 7 | +14.5% | +6.4% | +12.2% | +8.1 |
| 8 | +5.8% | −1.5% | +4.4% | +7.3 |
| 9 | −4.1% | −10.0% | −5.0% | +5.9 |
| 10 | −17.3% | −21.2% | −17.8% | +3.9 |
| A | −37.2% | −42.0% | −37.4% | +4.8 |
Average result per hand, in % of your bet, when the dealer shows that card (same rules). Plus means you are ahead on average with that up card; against a 10 or an ace it includes the rounds where the dealer has blackjack. Never bust here keeps the chart's doubles and splits. The last column is in percentage points.
Against a 7 to an ace the dealer usually finishes on 17 to 21. A standing 12 to 16 then wins only when the dealer busts: 26.2% of the time with a 7, 23.0% with a 10 and 20.1% with an ace (after the check for blackjack).
04Why basic strategy busts on purpose
With basic strategy, 15.6% of your hands finish over 21. That is the price of hitting stiff hands against strong dealer cards, and it is a smaller price than standing.
| Your hard total vs a dealer 10 | Stand | Hit | Hitting saves per $10 bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hard 12 | −0.540 | −0.378 | $1.61 |
| Hard 13 | −0.540 | −0.423 | $1.17 |
| Hard 14 | −0.540 | −0.464 | $0.76 |
| Hard 15 | −0.539 | −0.503 | $0.36 |
| Hard 16 | −0.540 | −0.535 | $0.05 |
Average result per bet of each move for a two-card hard total (pairs not included), 6 decks, dealer hits soft 17, the dealer has checked for blackjack. +1 means you win your bet, −1 that you lose it.
Every number is negative: a stiff hand against a 10 loses whatever you do. Hitting loses less, because a card from the shoe sometimes turns 12 to 16 into 17 to 21.
- A bust costs one bet. Standing on 16 against a 10 also costs one bet most of the time – just later in the round.
- Against 2 to 6 the chart stands on stiff hands, because then the dealer busts often (43.9% with a 6).
The full numbers for 16 and 15 are on should you hit on 16 and should you hit on 15.
05Mimic the dealer: where the house edge comes from
If you play exactly like the dealer, both hands follow the same rule and come from the same shoe. Only two things are not even:
- You play first. If you bust, you lose, even if the dealer busts later. You and the dealer both bust in 8.16% of rounds.
- Your blackjack pays 3:2. The extra half bet on a paid blackjack gives back 2.27% per round.
8.16% − 2.27% = 5.89%. The exact house edge of mimicking the dealer is 5.89%: the double busts, minus the blackjack bonus.
Basic strategy cuts the double busts to 3.81% of rounds, stands on stiff hands against weak dealer cards and adds doubles and splits. Together that brings the house edge down to 0.62%.
06Is blackjack skill or luck?
Both, on different time scales. One hand is mostly luck: the typical swing of one hand (its standard deviation) is about 1.16 bets, around 188 times the house edge.
Over many hands the swings even out and the strategy decides how much you lose on average. No strategy on this page gets the house edge below zero.
| Strategy | After 100 hands | After 1,000 hands | After 10,000 hands |
|---|---|---|---|
| Basic strategy | 48% | 43% | 30% |
| Never bust, with doubles and splits | 37% | 15% | under 1% |
| Mimic the dealer | 27% | 3% | under 1% |
Chance of being ahead after that many hands of equal bets (normal approximation with each strategy's standard deviation per hand). Same rules as above.
Even with basic strategy you are behind more often than ahead, and the gap grows with the number of hands. Skill lowers the price of playing; it does not turn it into income.
Decide on a money limit and a time limit before you play. The responsible gambling page lists free help lines.
Questions people ask
Does the no bust strategy work in blackjack?
It keeps you from busting, but it loses more. With 6 decks, the dealer hitting soft 17 and 3:2, the house edge goes from 0.62% with basic strategy to 3.86% if you keep the chart's doubles and splits, and 5.96% without them.
What are the odds of the no bust strategy?
You never bust, but you win fewer hands against a 7 to an ace: a standing stiff hand wins only when the dealer busts, 23.0% of the time with a 10 showing. The house edge is 3.86% with the chart's doubles and splits.
Is it a good idea to play like the dealer?
No. Mimicking the dealer has a house edge of 5.89% with these rules, because when you and the dealer both bust, you lose. That happens in 8.16% of rounds.
Is blackjack a game of skill or luck?
Both. Luck decides single hands and short sessions. Skill decides the average cost: 0.62% of each bet with basic strategy, 5.89% when playing like the dealer. No strategy here removes the house edge.
How often do you bust with basic strategy?
About 15.6% of your hands go over 21 with basic strategy and these rules. The dealer busts in about 28.6% of rounds.
How the numbers are worked out
Each fixed strategy is written as a table of moves by hand total (the same format as a strategy chart), and its average result is worked out exactly over the cards left in the shoe, with the same model as our strategy engine. As a check, the basic strategy chart run through this calculation gives exactly the engine's house edge.
An independent simulator of our own then played each strategy for 1,000,000,000 rounds: basic 0.613% ± 0.004, never bust with doubles and splits 3.854% ± 0.004, never bust plain 5.955% ± 0.003, mimic the dealer 5.894% ± 0.003 (house edge ± one standard error). All agree with the exact figures within the margin of error. Split hands are treated as independent. Chances of being ahead use a normal approximation.