Hit or stand on 15: the numbers for every dealer card

Hard 15 against every dealer card

Average result per bet of each move with a two-card hard 15 (pairs not included), 6 decks, dealer hits soft 17, double after split, late surrender. Against a 10 or an ace the dealer has already checked for blackjack. +1 means you win your bet, −1 that you lose it.

Why 15 loses whatever you do

Every number in the table is negative: hard 15 is one of the worst hands in blackjack. Standing wins only when the dealer busts, because any finished dealer hand is 17 or more. Hitting busts on a 7, 8, 9 or any ten-value card: with 6 decks and a 10 and 5 in your hand against a dealer 10, that is 166 of the 309 unseen cards, or 53.7% (with an endless deck 53.8%).

So the question is which way loses less. Against a dealer 2 to 6 the dealer busts often – with a 6 showing 43.9% of the time – and standing is better. Against a 7 or higher the dealer usually finishes on 17 to 21 (busts only 26.2% with a 7), and you have to hit to have a chance.

The closest call: 15 against a 10

Against a 10 hitting averages −0.503 per bet and standing −0.539: a difference of 0.036 of a bet, or 3.6 cents per $1. The blackjack calculator works out any exact hand, including three-card 15s.

15 against a 10, card by card

The chart decides by the total, but the cards behind it are no longer in the shoe. Exact figures for some ways to make 15:

Average result per bet for exactly these cards, 6 decks, dealer hits soft 17, the dealer has checked for blackjack, no surrender.

Here every way to make 15 gives the same answer. With 10-5, standing wins 23.0% of the time and loses 77.0%; hitting (and playing on in the best way) wins 21.9%, pushes 5.9% and loses 72.3%. Hitting wins a little less often, but it also loses less often: some of its hands end in a push.

If the table offers late surrender, giving up half the bet (−0.500) beats both hitting and standing against a 10 and an ace. More on surrender.

Where hitting is right, the gap is widest against a 7: standing averages −0.477, hitting −0.368. Standing on every 15 "because the dealer might bust" costs the most there. What never hitting a stiff hand costs over a whole game: no bust blackjack strategy.

When the rules change the answer

H hit, S stand, R surrender (otherwise hit), Rs surrender (otherwise stand). Our charts model late surrender only for games where the dealer checks for blackjack first.

Hard 15 is played the same way in all of these games, apart from surrender where it is offered.

Your own table's full chart: blackjack strategy chart.

Does the dealer hit on 15?

Always. The dealer plays by a fixed rule: hit every total of 16 or less, stand on every hard 17 or more. Only soft 17 – a 17 with an ace counted as 11 – depends on the table: some dealers hit it, some stand. See soft 17. A dealer with hard 15 busts on any 7 or higher: with 6 decks and the dealer's 10 and 5 known, 167 of 310 cards, or 53.9%.

Other hands, worked out the same way: should you hit on 12, 13 or 14, should you hit on 16 and how to play soft 18.

Questions people ask