Hit or stand on 16: the numbers for every dealer card

Hard 16 against every dealer card

Average result per bet of each move with a two-card hard 16 (pairs not included), 6 decks, dealer hits soft 17, double after split, late surrender. Against a 10 or an ace the dealer has already checked for blackjack. +1 means you win your bet, −1 that you lose it.

Why 16 loses whatever you do

Every number in the table is negative: hard 16 is one of the worst hands in blackjack. Standing wins only when the dealer busts, because any finished dealer hand is 17 or more. Hitting busts on a 6, 7, 8, 9 or any ten-value card: with 6 decks and a 10 and 6 in your hand against a dealer 10, that is 189 of the 309 unseen cards, or 61.2% (with an endless deck 61.5%).

So the question is which way loses less. Against a dealer 2 to 6 the dealer busts often – with a 6 showing 43.9% of the time – and standing is better. Against a 7 or higher the dealer usually finishes on 17 to 21 (busts only 26.2% with a 7), and you have to hit to have a chance.

The closest call: 16 against a 10

Against a 10 hitting averages −0.535 per bet and standing −0.540: a difference of 0.005 of a bet, or 0.5 cents per $1. That is one of the closest calls in blackjack, which is why players argue about it, and why the exact cards in your hand can tip it the other way. The blackjack calculator works out any exact hand, including three-card 16s.

16 against a 10, card by card

The chart decides by the total, but the cards behind it are no longer in the shoe. Exact figures for some ways to make 16:

Average result per bet for exactly these cards, 6 decks, dealer hits soft 17, the dealer has checked for blackjack, no surrender.

With 10-2-4 or 7-4-3-2 standing is a little better: small cards in your hand leave the shoe richer in tens, which makes a hit more likely to bust. With 10-6, standing wins 23.0% of the time and loses 77.0%; hitting (and playing on in the best way) wins 20.3%, pushes 6.0% and loses 73.7%. Hitting wins a little less often, but it also loses less often: some of its hands end in a push.

If the table offers late surrender, giving up half the bet (−0.500) beats both hitting and standing against a 9, a 10 and an ace. More on surrender.

Where hitting is right, the gap is widest against a 7: standing averages −0.477, hitting −0.409. Standing on every 16 "because the dealer might bust" costs the most there. What never hitting a stiff hand costs over a whole game: no bust blackjack strategy.

When the rules change the answer

H hit, S stand, R surrender (otherwise hit), Rs surrender (otherwise stand). Our charts model late surrender only for games where the dealer checks for blackjack first.

Hard 16 is played the same way in all of these games, apart from surrender where it is offered.

Your own table's full chart: blackjack strategy chart.

8-8 is not a 16

A pair of eights adds up to 16, but the chart splits it against every dealer card. Against a 10, splitting averages −0.475 per first bet, hitting −0.535: two hands starting from 8 do better than one 16. See when to split.

Does the dealer hit on 16?

Always. The dealer plays by a fixed rule: hit every total of 16 or less, stand on every hard 17 or more. Only soft 17 – a 17 with an ace counted as 11 – depends on the table: some dealers hit it, some stand. See soft 17. A dealer with hard 16 busts on any 6 or higher: with 6 decks and the dealer's 10 and 6 known, 190 of 310 cards, or 61.3%.

Other hands, worked out the same way: should you hit on 12, 13 or 14, should you hit on 15 and how to play soft 18.

Questions people ask